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Abiding by the ¡°rules of the games.¡±China is gaining a reputation in theinternational business community£¬ as a highly risky place to invest.Legal reforms£¬especially regarding intellectual property£¬ will have to be made.Similarly corruptionhas to be dealt with.Here is where the intemational community can perhaps exert itsgreatest leverage.Providing the capital and expertise that China will need to continueto grow can be linked to China's compliance with international rules and regulations.Protecting the environment.China already produces 11% of the world'sgreenhouse gas emissions.Buming all that coal and oil without pollution protection orefficiency improvements£¬ combined with the expected effects of growing road traffic£¬could have drastic effects on the environment. Feeding itself.China has 22% of the world's population£¬ but only 7% of itsarable land.Degradation of land and shortages of water have become increasinglycritical.Pessimists include the Worldwatch Institute's Lester Brown£¬ who projectsgrain imports exceeding 200 million metric tons by 2030.But China's own economistsare optimistic£¬ expecting technological innovation to maintain a high level of self-sufficiency. Holding the social fabric together.High economic growth has covered up thestrain so far£¬ but slower growth could create lots of unemployment and exacerbate thegrowing disparities between the flourishing coastal areas and the largely rural and lesswell-to-do interior.Also important will be the economy's ability to create high-leveljobs for the growing number of college graduates.Failure to do so could ignite studentactivism. China's economy and international policy.The response of the internationalcommunity to China's economic development hinges largely on whether the world canor will absorb the flood of exports that a fast-growing Chinese economy is likely toproduce.On the positive side£¬ China has been open to imports£¬ running a trade deficitsince reforms began in 1978.An open£¬ thriving Chinese economy offers new marketsthat offset the threat that its exports present.In any case£¬ China's economic growthwill give the international community great opportunities for leverage. Three possible scenarios for China's economic future are outlined by Dwight H.Perkins of the Harvard Institute for International Development£º Scenario 1£ºThe High Growth Alternative.Almost everything has to go right forgrowth to continue at 8% or 9% annually.The market orientation of the economystrengthens£¬ and reform continues.State-owned enterprises are reformed£¬ andcorruption is curbed.Sufficient capital is available.China's high rate of personal savings continues.The needed upgrades in the transportation and energy infrastructures are helped along by direct foreign investment.The quality of education improves£¬ and more efforts are made to lure back home Chinese nationals studying or workingabroad.The global economy is willing to absorb a high level of exports from China'slabor-intensive manufacturing£¬ based in part on China's liberalization of its importpolicies. Scenario 2£ºA Deteriorating External Environment.A Iess-favorable external environment combines with stalled domestic reform.The most likely trigger is whetherChina's rapid export growth leads to a protectionist reaction.The global economy isunwilling to absorb China's export assault£¬ especially since the world sees China askeeping its own markets relatively closed.Another possible trigger is a mishandling ofthe Hong Kong transition.The result is that China's domestic economy is unable toabsorb its productive capacity and growth slows.As a result of economic trouble£¬reform stalls even reverses.Social unrest follows£¬ further retarding economicliberalization. Scenario 3£ºProspects for China.The consensus of the experts contributing to¡°China¡± in the 21st ¡°Century¡±is that China will continue to grow rapidly if it dealssuccessfully with its internal issues and if the external environment is favorable.China's growth will slow down if either is unfavorable£¬ but this will only delay itsemergence as the world's largest economy. ¡­¡­